Rising GDP Capita and the Filipino Middle Class

Back in 2012, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) published a paper entitled Tracking the Middle-Income Trap: What is It, Who is in It, and Why? According to their research, the Philippines – as of 2010 – has been a lower middle-income economy for the past 34 years. 14 years later – in 2024, the country is still in the same boat.

That’s 48 years. For reference – according to the same paper, it usually takes countries 28 years at most to move on to the upper middle-income category. Otherwise, it’s considered “stuck” in the lower middle-income trap. The question now is when will the Philippines escape this said trap.

Our prediction? 2028.

In this article, NRI’s Business Strategy Consulting Head, Allan Jr Tripon, CPA, CFA, forecasts Philippine GDP per capita to breach the $5,000 mark by 2028, finally joining the upper middle-income economies. We also expect this growth to be sustained over the next decade, with nominal GDP per capita breaching the $10,000 mark by 2039.